California. Broken down by the winner's party, the average MOV was 27.7 percentage points for Democrats and 30.2 percentage points for Republicans. Clickme! Heading into the election, Democrats had a 220-212 majority. Find out how all this works in our. Given the expected impact of redistricting, however, Democrats probably need a larger lead to keep control of the House. The final 2022 House ratings from Sabato's Crystal Ball. Table 1 shows that the presidents party has lost House seats in 17 of 19 midterm elections since World War II and Senate seats in 13 of 19. Considered the weaker side, a $100 bet on the Democrats would yield a profit of $225 in the case of an upset. A smaller Democratic lead in the generic ballot, or a Republican lead, would predict a Republican edge in the House, and possibly also in the Senate. These boundaries will be in effect through 2022. 100% remote. The generic ballot a question in which survey respondents are asked which party they prefer for Congress without providing names of individual candidates has proven to be a useful tool for explaining the national outcomes of House and Senate elections. This sample of 100 outcomes gives you an idea of the range of scenarios the model considers possible. Items are listed in reverse chronological order by date of change, with the most recent change appearing first. See the rest of our predictions. This is the highest rate of congressional incumbents facing contested primaries since at least 2014 and is at least the fourth consecutive cycle where this rate has increased from the previous cycle. This analysis provides an understanding of how competitive the year's primary elections were using metrics including the number of incumbents who did not seek re-election, the total number of contested primaries, and the number of incumbents with primary challengers. There are 26 seats rated as Toss Up races where neither party has a significant advantage. Upset wins are surprising but not impossible. We work hard to make predictions that are both accurate and defensible. !function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r
